Abstract:Since the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" and the "transformation from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of total carbon emission intensity" have been proposed, the coordinated development needs of regional energy consumption control and industrial development and low-carbon transformation of power supply development have been particularly critical. This paper proposes a prediction model of energy consumption indicators for the coordinated development of "industry-power-energy", which establishes a stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) based on stochastic impact regression, and calculates the relevant indicators before and after industrial and energy transition. The industrial and energy transition factors are taken into account in the regional economic and energy development goals to predict the changes in regional energy consumption indicators. The case analysis shows that the model can quantitatively obtain the spatial distribution of energy consumption and carbon emissions caused by industrial and energy transition, policy impacts. This has an auxiliary decision-making role in the introduction of regional industries and the formulation of power supply development strategies, and is of great significance to promote the realization of the goals of regional carbon peak and carbon neutrality.