Abstract:Aiming at the problem that the recognition of chain fault in power grid is difficult, and with the standardization of the warning information in substation as well as the deep application of big data analysis on equipment monitoring. It is possible that we can solve the problem of chain fault by using big data of monitoring and the measure of intelligent analysis and prediction. The article has come up with the grid vulnerability prediction method of grid fault diagnosis and fault evolution based on chain fault condition causality chain. First of all, the article has introduced the diagnostic method of single element and the diagnostic method of cascading failure based on causal chain of failure of the finite state machine model. Then the article has dealt with the constitute of evaluating system of the risk of power grid failure based on the causal chain of intelligence state. At last, the article has been verified the feasibility of the method in this article with an actual power grid as an example.