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投稿时间:2025-05-28 修订日期:2025-06-05
投稿时间:2025-05-28 修订日期:2025-06-05
中文摘要: 挖掘新能源电力的出力特性对电网规划与电网调峰具有指导性意义,也是构建新型电力系统的重点关注内容。基于此,本文依据贵州省某区域近三年风电和光伏的时序出力数据,构建了较为合理的新能源出力特性评价体系,并借助建模分析输出特性参数,例如出力分布、置信容量、有效容量以及典型日出力特性曲线。研究表明,该区域风电出力的季节性特征不如光伏明显,但出力波动性高于光伏。在负荷晚高峰期间,风电夏季电力保供能力为装机容量的1.85%,冬季则为0.02%;而光伏在晚高峰期间无电力产生,电力保供能力为0%。此外,在95%消纳率下,该区域风电最大出力为装机容量的51.20%,光伏最大出力为装机容量的57.55%。同时,风电和光伏在出力枯期将加剧电力系统的调峰困境。
Abstract:Excavating the output characteristics of new energy power has instructive significance in power grid planning and peak load regulation, and is also a key focus of new-type power system construction. Based on this, this paper has established a relatively reasonable evaluation system for new energy output characteristics based on time-series big output data from wind and photovoltaic power plants in a certain region of Guizhou Province over the past three years, and has analyzed output characteristic parameters through modeling analysis, such as power distribution, capacity credit, effective capacity, and typical daily power balance curves. The research shows that the seasonal characteristics of wind power in this region are not as obvious as those of photovoltaic power, but the output fluctuation of wind power is higher than that of photovoltaic power. During the evening peak load period, the capacity credit of wind power is 1.85% of the installed capacity in summer and 0.02% in winter, while the capacity credit of photovoltaic power is 0% due to the lack of power generation during the evening. In addition, under a 95% accommodation rate, the maximum output of wind power in this region is 51.20% of the installed capacity, and that of photovoltaic power is 57.55%. Furthermore, the wind power and photovoltaic power in this region will aggravate the difficulty of power system peak load regulation during power shortage period.
文章编号:20250528001 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:贵州电网有限责任公司电力规划专题研究项目(060000ZZ00240003)
作者 | 单位 | 邮编 |
饶刚 | 广东省能源集团西南(贵州)电力投资有限公司 | 550009 |
杨捷 | 广东省能源集团西南(贵州)电力投资有限公司 | |
郭元萍* | 贵州电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心 | 550005 |
张彦 | 贵州电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心 | |
刘兴艳 | 贵州电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心 | |
尹佳 | 贵州电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心 |
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