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基于改进的BiLSTM的风电功率预测研究
李阮
(上海化学工业区申能电力销售有限公司)
Research on Wind Power Prediction Based on Improved BiLSTM
LI Ruan
(Shenergy Power Sales Co.,Ltd. in Shanghai Chemical Industry Park,Shanghai,201507)
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投稿时间:2025-05-20    修订日期:2025-06-06
中文摘要: 随着风电作为清洁可再生能源在能源转型中的重要性日益凸显,但其固有不稳定性和间歇性给电网运行及电力调度带来诸多挑战,精准的风电功率预测模型构建意义重大。本文提出一种新的风电功率预测模型构建思路,利用变分模态分解(VMD)挖掘有功功率特征,将其分解为多个本征模态函数与风速、温度等多特征共同作为预测模型的输入量。同时基于灰狼优化算法(GWO)改进双向长短记忆模型(BiLSTM),通过GWO对BiLSTM的关键参数进行优化,以均方根误差为适应度值在测试集上评估并迭代更新参数组合。采用均方根误差、平均绝对误差以及决定系数评估指标,对公开数据集SDWPF中风电机组数据进行测试,实验结果表明,本文所提出 VMD-GWO-BiLSTM 模型的预测结果优于传统机器学习模型及CNN-BiLSTM模型结果,体现出较好的准确性。
Abstract:As wind power, a clean and renewable energy source, is gaining increasing prominence in the energy transformation, its inherent instability and intermittence have posed numerous challenges to the operation of power grids and power dispatching. Consequently, the construction of an accurate wind power generation prediction model is of great significance.In this paper, a novel approach to constructing a wind power prediction model is put forward. Variational mode decomposition (VMD) is employed to extract the features of active power, which is then decomposed into multiple intrinsic mode functions. Subsequently, these intrinsic mode functions, along with various other features like wind speed and temperature, are utilized as the input variables for the prediction model.Simultaneously, the bidirectional long short-term memory model (BiLSTM) is enhanced based on the grey wolf optimizer (GWO). Specifically, the key parameters of BiLSTM are optimized by GWO, with the root mean square error serving as the fitness value. The parameter combinations are evaluated and iteratively updated on the test set.By leveraging evaluation metrics such as the root mean square error, the mean absolute error, and the coefficient of determination, tests are conducted on the wind turbine data within the public dataset SDWPF. The experimental results reveal that the prediction outcomes of the VMD-GWO-BiLSTM model proposed in this paper outperform those of traditional machine learning models and the CNN-BiLSTM model, demonstrating relatively good accuracy.
文章编号:20250520002     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2024BGL015)
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