Abstract:With the large-scale access of distributed energy sources such as wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage, the operation of active distribution networks faces the challenges of increased uncertainty on both sides of the source-load and the complexity and variability of multi-dimensional operation scenarios. In this paper, an information-physical fusion credible capacity assessment method for intermittent distributed power sources in active distribution grids is proposed to cope with multiple changing operation scenarios after the access of wind power, photovoltaic and energy storage in order to assess the credible capacity of the effective output of distributed power sources, so as to reveal the intrinsic characteristics of the active distribution grids more accurately. The credible capacity calculation method is introduced by improving the dynamic tidal current calculation and validated with examples, and the results show that the credible capacity assessment value of the active distribution grid example is 911.26 kW, which effectively reveals the operating characteristics of the active distribution grid, and the method can effectively assess the credible capacity of intermittent distributed power sources and the output power level of distributed power sources. This study provides a theoretical basis and computational tools for dynamic planning, security assessment and flexible resource allocation in active distribution networks, with strong practical application value.