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新型电力系统可变网格群动态过程风险评估方法
(1.贵州电网公司电力调度控制中心;2.贵州电网公司贵安供电局;3.贵州电网公司安顺供电局)
Dynamic Process Risk Assessment Method for Variable Grid Clusters in the New Power System
Liang Ling1, Su Hua-ying1, Song Yao2,3,4, Guo Ming5, Zhang Yun-ju5
(1.Power dispatching and control center,Guizhou Power Grid Company,Guiyang;2.Guizhou Power Grid Co,Ltd Gui'3.'4.an Power Supply Bureau,Guiyang;5.Anshun Power Supply Bureau of Guizhou Power Grid Co,Ltd Anshun)
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投稿时间:2025-04-14    修订日期:2025-07-04
中文摘要: 为应对高比例可再生能源接入所引发的新型电力系统运行不确定性强、系统复杂度高等问题,保障系统安全稳定运行,本文提出一种基于动态可变网格群的电力系统动态风险评估方法。该方法以电能质量为核心指标,构建涵盖数据预处理、特征分析、预测建模与风险预警的完整评估框架,并引入AHP-TOPSIS算法对风险等级进行量化分析,实现对关键风险区域的准确识别。通过设计动态可变网格群结构,增强了系统对复杂运行环境的适应能力,有效提升了评估模型在动态条件下的灵敏度与精度。案例分析结果表明,该方法能准确识别新型电力系统中的潜在风险区域,评估结果与实际运行情况高度匹配,验证了方法的有效性和可行性。研究结果为提升新型电力系统的安全性、稳定性及运行效率提供了可靠的理论依据与实践参考,对后续复杂电力系统的动态风险管理具有重要指导意义。
Abstract:To address the challenges of high uncertainty and operational complexity brought by the integration of a high proportion of renewable energy in new-type power systems, and to ensure safe and stable operation, this paper proposes a dynamic risk assessment method based on a variable grid group structure. Centered on power quality as the core indicator, the method establishes a comprehensive risk assessment framework encompassing data preprocessing, feature analysis, predictive modeling, and risk warning. By integrating the AHP-TOPSIS algorithm, it quantifies risk levels and accurately identifies key risk areas. The introduction of the dynamic variable grid group structure enhances the system"s adaptability to complex operational environments and significantly improves the sensitivity and accuracy of risk assessment under dynamic conditions. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively identify potential risk regions within new-type power systems, with assessment results closely matching actual operating conditions, thereby validating its effectiveness and feasibility. The findings provide a solid theoretical foundation and practical reference for improving the safety, stability, and operational efficiency of new-type power systems, offering valuable guidance for dynamic risk management in complex power networks.
文章编号:20250414001     中图分类号:    文献标志码:
基金项目:基于图计算的电网在线安全分析及风险评估关键技术研究及应用
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