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电力大数据:2024,27(9):-
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基于时序运行模拟的贵州省新能源消纳能力分析
刘兴艳1, 郭元萍1, 尹佳1, 张彦1, 陈燕2, 简繁2
(1.贵州电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心;2.中国电建集团贵州电力设计研究院有限公司)
Analysis of Renewable Energy Consumption Capacity in Guizhou Province Based on Time-Series Operational Simulation
liuxingyan1, guoyuanping1, yinjia1, zhangyan1, chenyan2, jianfan2
(1.Guizhou Power Grid Co., Ltd. Power Grid Planning and Research Center;2.China Power Construction Guizhou Electric Power Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd)
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投稿时间:2024-08-30    修订日期:2024-11-01
中文摘要: 随着传统化石能源的不断消耗,新能源受到了发电领域的广泛关注。但由于新能源出力的不确定性、电网负荷的不可控性经济电网跨区传输等因素的限制,新能源往往不能完全消纳,传统分析法计算过于保守,不利于提高新能源消纳能力。本文以贵州省为例,基于时序运行模拟法对电力系统新能源消纳能力进行分析。首先分析了贵州省新能源资源分布情况、出力特性以及在时间、空间上的分布特点,研究了风电、光伏的波动特性;其次,采用时序运行模拟分析系统短期运行,建立考虑新能源不确定性的电力系统时序运行模拟模型,充分考虑因预测误差导致的新能源出力随机性,在确定系统运行方式的同时,确定新能源电力的可消纳区间,量化系统的清洁能源消纳能力;最后,基于贵州省新能源出力、负荷情况等规划数据进行算例分析,对所提模型进行分析验证。
Abstract:As traditional fossil energy continues to be depleted, new energy sources have garnered widespread attention in the power generation sector. However, due to constraints such as the uncertainty of renewable energy output, the uncontrollable nature of grid loads, and the cross-regional transmission of power grids, new energy often cannot be fully accommodated. Traditional analytical methods tend to be overly conservative, which is detrimental to enhancing the consumption capacity of new energy. Taking Guizhou Province as an example, this paper analyzes the consumption capacity of renewable energy in the power system based on the time-series operational simulation method. Firstly, it analyzes the distribution of new energy resources in Guizhou Province, their output characteristics, and their temporal and spatial distribution patterns, examining the fluctuation characteristics of wind power and photovoltaic power. Secondly, it adopts a time-series operational simulation to analyze the short-term operation of the system, establishes a time-series operational simulation model for new energy power systems, fully considers the randomness of new energy output caused by prediction errors, determines the operation mode of the system, and identifies the consumable range of new energy power, thereby quantifying the clean energy consumption capacity of the system. Finally, based on planning data regarding new energy output and load conditions in Guizhou Province, the paper conducts a case study to analyze and verify the proposed model.
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