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电力大数据:2023,26(1):-
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基于SWOT及层次分析法的氢能战略及与区域经济协同度评价
(1.中电建新能源集团有限公司华东分公司;2.中国水电建设集团如东新能源有限公司;3.中国电建集团贵州电力设计研究院有限公司)
Evaluation of hydrogen energy strategy and its synergy with regional economy based on SWOT and AHP
Jiang Su1, Miao Wei2, Wu Yajun2, Zhao Jian3,4
(1.East China Branch of PowerChina Renewable Energy Co., Ltd;2.Sinohydro Rud New Energy Co., Ltd;3.Power china Guizhou Electric Power Design &4.Research Institute Co., Ltd)
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投稿时间:2022-10-21    修订日期:2023-01-31
中文摘要: 本文结合“双碳”目标背景,首先分析我国能源发展现状以及加氢站数与全球比对分析;其次采用SWOT分析法,从国内、国外环境角度梳理影响我国氢能发展战略评价指标,并建立四层AHP结构,给出每个评价指标对氢能发展的影响权重;最后采用PCA算法,选取“十四五”期间新能源发电装机容量、氢能企业数量、加氢站数等6个主要指标,对我国主要省份氢能发展现状进行综合评价,并结合GDP增速指标,分析氢能发展与区域经济可持续发展协同度情况。研究表明:2020年我国累计加氢站数占全球比例21.30%,氢气产量同比增速13.6%;国内外政策对氢能发展权重值最高,氢储运、新冠疫情为对劣势权重值较高的指标;贵州、广西、云南、海南氢能发展现状综合得分相对较低,且与区域经济可持续发展协同度较差。
Abstract:Combined with the background of "double carbon" goal, this paper first analyzes the current situation of energy development in China, as well as the comparison of the number of hydrogenation stations between China and other major countries in the world; Secondly, using SWOT analysis to sort out the evaluation indexes which affect China''s hydrogen energy development strategy from the domestic and foreign environment, and giving the influence weight of each evaluation index on hydrogen energy development by establishing a four-tier AHP structure; Finally, the PCA algorithm is used to comprehensively evaluate the current situation of hydrogen energy development in major provinces in China by selecting six main indicators such as the installed capacity of new energy power generation, the number of hydrogen energy enterprises and the number of hydrogen refueling stations during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Combined with the GDP growth indicator, the synergy between hydrogen energy development and regional economic sustainable development is analyzed. The research shows that the cumulative number of hydrogenation stations in China accounted for 21.30% of the world by 2020, and the hydrogen production growth rate increased by 13.6% year-on-year; The domestic and international policies have the highest weight value for hydrogen energy development. Hydrogen storage and transportation has a relatively high disadvantage weight value, the same as the COVID-19 index. The comprehensive score of hydrogen energy development status in Guizhou, Guangxi, Yunnan and Hainan is relatively low, whose synergy with regional economic sustainable development is poor.
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