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电力大数据:2020,23(02):-
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贵州省近60年气温变化特征分析及对输电线路运维的影响
刘发勇, 犹珀玉
(中国电建集团贵州电力设计研究院有限公司 贵州 贵阳550081)
Analysis on Temperature Change Features of GuiZhou Province in Recent 60 years and Its Impact on Operation and Maintenance of Transmission Lines
LIU Fa-yong, YOU Po-yu
(POWERCHINA GUIZHOU ELECTRIC POWER DESIGN RESEARCH INSTITUTE CO.,LTD,GUIZHOU GUIYANG 550081)
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投稿时间:2019-08-07    修订日期:2019-11-18
中文摘要: 为探讨贵州省进60年气温空间变化特征对输电线路的影响,本文采用普通克里格法与协同克里格法两种插值方法的误差进行对比分析,选择协同克里格法对贵州省19个地面观测站1951-2010年的温度观测数据进行空间插值,从而得出贵州省气温分布特征。研究结果表明:贵州省近60年平均温度从1951年的15.2℃上升到了2010年的15.9℃,上升了0.7℃,平均每10年约上升0.12℃;通过气温空间分布特征分析得出在铜仁、榕江、罗甸、望谟一代温度较高,有可能造成输电线路软化而形成弧垂,使输电线路绝缘老化,设计施工时应尽量考虑输电导线绝缘材料的耐热性;习水、毕节、威宁一代,冬季气温较低,有可能造成输电线路覆冰致使线路损坏和杆塔受力过大而倒塌,设计施工时应考虑杆塔承受能力和导线的拉伸能力。
中文关键词: 插值  平均误差  气温  特征分析  输电线路
Abstract:In order to explore the influence of spatial variation of temperature on transmission lines in Guizhou Province in the past 60 years, the error of two interpolation methods, common Kriging method and collaborative Kriging method, is compared and analyzed. The collaborative Kriging method is selected to interpolate the temperature data of 19 ground observation stations in Guizhou Province from 1951 to 2010. Temperature Distribution Characteristics in Guizhou Province. The results show that the average temperature in Guizhou Province has risen from 15.2 in 1951 to 15.9 in 2010, rising by 0.7 with an average increase of 0.12 every 10 years. Through the analysis of the spatial distribution characteristics of temperature, it is concluded that the higher temperature in Tongren, Rongjiang, Luodian and Wangmo generations may cause the softening of transmission lines and form arcs. Vertical, make transmission line insulation aging, design and construction should take into account the heat resistance of transmission line insulation materials as far as possible; In Xishui, Bijie and Weining generation, low temperature in winter may cause transmission line icing, which may cause line damage and tower collapse due to excessive force. Tower bearing capacity and wire tension capacity should be considered in design and construction.
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基金项目:北斗卫星电力行业应用关键技术研究及数据应用产业化(黔科合重大专项2018-3007);输电线路空间大数据分析与辅助决策系统开发与应用研究(DJ-ZDXM-2018-47)
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