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电力大数据:2019,22(11):-
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LEC法加入模糊影响图算法的变电站施工触电风险研究 ——以220kV奎福变电站施工工程为例
汪玉翔1, 梁伟萍2
(1.贵州电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心;2.中国航发贵州红林航空动力控制科技有限公司)
Electric Shock Risk of Substation Construction by Using LEC Method with Fuzzy Influence Diagram Algorithm——Taking 220kV Kuifu Substation Construction Project as an Example
wang yuxiang1, liang weiping2
(1.Power Grid Planning Research Center of Guizhou Power Grid Co., Ltd.;2.China Aviation Engine Group Guizhou Honglin Aviation Power Control Technology Co., Ltd.)
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投稿时间:2019-05-23    修订日期:2019-08-07
中文摘要: 为了解决传统LEC法安全风险的评价模式套路化的问题,本文通过加入模糊影响图算法提高了风险管控的有效性、灵活性。首先,从变电站工程安全风险的一般应用理论和方法出发,先以LEC法为主导进行变电站建设风险危险源辨识,利用minitab软件分析统计风险危害因素,分析项目存在的安全风险特点,找出了触电风险作为主要管控风险点;然后,绘制出触电风险模糊影响图,使用Matlab工具进行模糊逻辑推理揭示出引发“触电风险”的众多因素间的潜在关系,探究出有针对性的安全管理方案并在实际中提高了安全风险管控措施的有效性;最后,采用针对性方案解决了安措套路化的问题,提高了增强了灵活性,讨论了基于定性分析的LEC评价法和定量风险的模糊影响图评价算法的优缺点,为今后的现场施工管理提供理论支撑和应用模型。
Abstract:In order to solve the problem of the traditional LEC method of security risk evaluation, this paper improves the effectiveness and flexibility of risk management by adding fuzzy influence diagram algorithm. Firstly, starting from the general application theory and method of substation engineering safety risk, the LEC method is used to identify the risk hazard source of substation construction. The minitab software is used to analyze the statistical risk hazard factors, analyze the safety risk characteristics of the project, and find out the electric shock. Risk as the main risk control point; then, draw a fuzzy impact map of electric shock risk, use Matlab tools for fuzzy logic reasoning to reveal the potential relationship between many factors that cause “electric shock risk”, and explore a targeted safety management program and In practice, the effectiveness of safety risk management and control measures has been improved. Finally, the problem of Angola routineization has been solved with a targeted solution, and the flexibility has been enhanced. The LEC evaluation method based on qualitative analysis and the fuzzy influence diagram of quantitative risk are discussed. The advantages and disadvantages of the evaluation algorithm provide theoretical support and application models for future on-site construction management.
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