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投稿时间:2018-07-08 修订日期:2018-08-13
投稿时间:2018-07-08 修订日期:2018-08-13
中文摘要: In view of the lack of effective fault early warning and prediction methods for substation equipment, this paper proposes Pearson correlation analysis, one-way ANOVA, statistical comparison and other methods to analyze the correlation of various substation equipment patrol data, and then establishes a logistic regression fault prediction model to realize the advanced early warning of equipment status. The classification depth learning neural network model based on depth learning can accurately judge the possible fault types of early warning equipment. Finally, the substation intelligent operation and maintenance assistant decision-making big data platform is built to visualize the early warning model of substation equipment failure; the risk matrix analysis method is used to manage and control the equipment at different levels, to assist in optimizing the operation and maintenance strategy, so that the important equipment can get the key operation and maintenance, and realize the differential operation and maintenance of substation equipment. A large number of practical tests show that the accuracy of this method reaches more than 90%, which is about 20 times higher than the previous manual experience. The equipment failure rate is reduced by 75% and the equipment availability coefficient is 99.988%. This method greatly improves the equipment health level and the equipment operation and maintenance efficiency.
Abstract:Aiming at the lack of fault warning and forecasting methods for substation equipment ,In this paper, Pearson correlation analysis, one-way ANOVA, and statistical comparison are used to analyze the correlation data of various substation equipment inspection data. Then, the Logistic regression failure prediction model is established to realize the early warning of the state of the equipment. Then, deep learning is used to build a deep learning neural network model, which can accurately predict the possible fault types of early warning devices. In the end, the fault prediction and early warning platform for substation equipment is successfully built. The risk matrix analysis method is used to level control the equipment and assist in optimizing the operation strategy, so that the important equipment can get the key transportation dimension and realize the differential transportation dimension of the substation equipment. Through a lot of practical verification, it shows that the accuracy rate of the equipment fault prediction is above 90%, The equipment failure rate was reduced by 75 % from the same period, and the equipment availability factor reached 99.988 %, which greatly improves the health level of the equipment and improves the efficiency of equipment operation and maintenance.
文章编号: 中图分类号: 文献标志码:
基金项目:变电站设备状态数据分析及预测预警系统研究
作者 | 单位 | |
范李平* | 国网湖北省电力有限公司宜昌供电公司 湖北宜昌 443000 | 184948938@qq.com.cn |
张晓辉 | 国网湖北省电力有限公司宜昌供电公司 湖北宜昌 443000 | |
苏伟 | 国网湖北省电力有限公司宜昌供电公司 湖北宜昌 443000 |
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