Abstract:With the increase in installed capacity of the new energy, it is very important to have certain impartial evaluation on the capacity of energy accommodation for the power grid so as to ensure higher permeability of new energy and the safety and stability of the power grid.This paper, based on the multi state probability model of joint output of new energy generation considers the constraint of peak load regulation capacity of power system, and the assessment on the capacity of new energy accommodation for the power grid has been comprehensively made by using the installed generation capacity of new energy, the loss of electricity energy and the proportion between the energy accepted and the new energy theoretically generated under unconstrained conditions, Thereafter, a method for analyzing the capacity of new energy accommodation based on the multi-state probability model is proposed. As an example, the capacity of new energy accommodation for the planning power grid of a province in 2020 level year has been studied. According to the statistics of the probability distribution of new energy output in historical years, the probability distribution of wind power generation and photovoltaic combined power generation is obtained according to the statistical results. The residual peak load regulation capacity of the system is calculated by using the planning data of the power supply and load of the province, and the capacity of new energy accommodation is evaluated. The influence of state number selection on the analysis results was analyzed. The correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method were verified.