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电力大数据:2018,21(1):-
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电力系统负荷预测综述
张凌云,肖惠仁,吴俊豪,廖谦,王鹏
(贵州电网有限责任公司兴义供电局,贵州电网有限责任公司兴义供电局,贵州电网有限责任公司兴义供电局,贵州电网有限责任公司兴义供电局,贵州大学)
Review of Power System Load Forecasting
ZhangLingyun,XiaoHuiren,WuJunhao,LiaoQian and WangPeng
(Guizhou power grid limited liability company Xingyi Power Supply Bureau,Guizhou power grid limited liability company Xingyi Power Supply Bureau,Guizhou power grid limited liability company Xingyi Power Supply Bureau,Guizhou power grid limited liability company Xingyi Power Supply Bureau,Guizhou University)
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投稿时间:2018-01-09    修订日期:2018-01-13
中文摘要: 负荷预测对电力系统非常重要,是电力系统进行规划、调度的基础,也是电力系统安全、稳定和经济运行的保障。精确的负荷预测是电力系统一直追求的目标,各种现代的新兴算法、方法运用到负荷预测之中,不同的预测方法由于自身的特点对于负荷预测的适用性也不尽相同,对于不同方法在负荷预测中的综述就显得很有必要。讨论了国内外的负荷预测的研究现状,分析了进行电力系统负荷预测的多种传统方法和现代智能方法,并总结出各种预测方法的优缺点和适用性,对于电力系统在选择负荷预测方法时具有一定参考价值。最后,对智能电网下的几种特定负荷预测场景进行了介绍,以这些角度去看待负荷预测问题,得出适用于这些场景的负荷预测方法,对于未来的负荷预测的发展也进行了展望。
中文关键词: 电力系统  负荷预测  智能电网
Abstract:Load forecasting is very important to the power system. It is the basis of power system planning and scheduling, and also the security, stability and economic operation of power system. The precise load forecasting of electric power system is always the pursuit of the goal, a new method of algorithm, applied to a variety of modern load forecasting, different forecasting methods due to their own characteristics suitable for load forecasting are not the same, it is necessary for different methods in load forecasting . The paper discusses the domestic and foreign research situation of load forecasting, analyzes several traditional methods of power system load forecasting and modern intelligent methods, and summarizes the advantages and disadvantages of various forecasting methods. The power system has a certain reference value in selecting the load forecasting method. Finally, several specific load forecasting scenarios under smart grid are introduced. From these perspectives, load forecasting problems can be seen, and load forecasting methods suitable for these scenarios can be drawn, and the future development of load forecasting is also forecasted.
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